horses 2.0

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faveo
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horses 2.0

Postby faveo » Sat Jun 18, 2011 6:36 pm

K this is a project ive been working on for over a month.

Ive wrote a program that will track the on course price market for the last 5 minutes before a race.

the idea being that punters "in the know" place their bets just before the off to secure the best price, shop bookmakers then lower their sp when the gates open to lower their liabilities, (uk betting is a lot different than the US tote), this will intoduce value in the bet.

For example if my program sees a price drop on course from 3/1 to 2/1 I can place my bet @ 3/1 at the shop bookmaker(ladbrokes william hill etc) before they get chance to lower their sp in the shop, thus getting value.

btw the only bookmakers that except "big bets" ie £5000 or more are on course, most shop bookmakers have a maximum stake of £500 but limit you after you get a few wins anyway. That s why most professional gamblers place their bets on course either via an agent or themselves (thats what all the hand waving signals are for! as mobile phones are banned in the betting ring!).Shops are usually for mug punters with nothing to do all day or grannys wanting 50p bets.

Ill practice this week and post my results.


if the ground is soft its a no bet as I feel this turns the race into a lottery most horses are bred for good ground and only a freak of nature produces a horse that likes soft ground imo.

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choddy
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Re: horses 2.0

Postby choddy » Sun Jun 19, 2011 7:22 pm

Happy to test this with you Fav if you need a second sample.

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faveo
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Re: horses 2.0

Postby faveo » Mon Jun 20, 2011 11:01 am

thanks chod,might take you up on that offer. first day went fairly well, the idea being to get more value than the sp, betfair seems to offer more than bookmakers even after paying the commision.


so far quite a good start 5 bets qualified yesterday and 3 won! not getting carried away yet tho [-X

Spoke to someone yesterday about this theory and advised me to stick to inexperienced horses and low grade races, but ill stick with all racing atm then see if i need to filter out handicaps and listed races.

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Re: horses 2.0

Postby Guest » Mon Jun 20, 2011 12:17 pm

sounds cool, let me know how it goes mate

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faveo
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Re: horses 2.0

Postby faveo » Mon Jun 20, 2011 3:28 pm

using decimal odds as im using betfair to place bets, all odds are net of commision (5%)

1515 wolves 5f hcap best trip lost :( -1

1700 wolves 1m 4f selling stakes visions of johanna won :D odds 3.28 +2.28

2100 chep 1m class stakes uptown guy won :D odds 3.85 +2.85

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Dawkinson
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Re: horses 2.0

Postby Dawkinson » Mon Jun 20, 2011 4:13 pm

I don't know much about betting, but I created a website for some people who use a system which sounds similar to this. He seems to be doing very well for himself! Here's the website if you're interested http://www.themarketexaminer.co.uk/

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faveo
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Re: horses 2.0

Postby faveo » Mon Jun 20, 2011 5:06 pm

cheers dawks, his results certainly look impressive, Ill have a read.

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faveo
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Re: horses 2.0

Postby faveo » Mon Jun 20, 2011 5:26 pm

very similiar system, difference being he looks at price changes from a much earlier stage, usually rumours emerge from a stable, causing a snowball effect on the price.Trick is to find out what rumours are true or false.

the holy grail is not to back every market mover but to back it while there is still value in the bet ie above sp.

looking at his figures he seems to have cracked it, never a fan of subscription services, not saying theyre all bad, just I find it a lot more fun to keep experimenting myself :)


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